Copernicus for Solar – Nowcasting Solar PV for Energy Management Systems

Energy Management Systems Rely on Solar Power Forecasts

Luminus monitors and steers local energy assets using an Energy Management System (EMS) for enterprises such as large office buildings or industrial sites. A variety of assets are supported, including renewable energy generation assets such as PV, where the goal is to optimise local energy flows, combining the flexibility in energy demand & production on-site. For this, the EMS uses a forecasting model that estimates the foreseen solar PV production in the next 15 minutes. Reuniwatt, supported by EUSPA, showcased a new forecasting model for Luminus that draws on free and open Copernicus data.

Luminus’ SmartKit EMS integrates a wide range of assets such as PV, wind, EV charging infrastructure, heat pumps, and batteries. To effectively balance on-site energy demand and production, accurate short-term forecasting of renewable generation is important, particularly PV power generation, which is highly variable and weather-dependent. Improving the precision of these forecasts would enable Luminus to maximize the value of local renewable energy, and ensure smarter steering of energy assets (including curtailment).

Copernicus Data for Solar Energy Nowcasting

The Copernicus-powered solution offered by Reuniwatt builds on their HourCast service, which uses geostationary meteorological satellite imagery together with Copernicus atmospheric data to generate accurate short-term solar forecasts. By converting successive satellite images into cloudiness maps and applying advanced optical flow techniques to track cloud movement, the system can anticipate solar irradiance fluctuations over the next few hours. These irradiance forecasts are then transformed into PV power generation predictions, refreshed every 15 minutes, providing reliable, near-real-time insights into upcoming solar output. Delivered via API in standard formats, the forecasts can be seamlessly integrated into the SmartKit EMS, enabling smarter steering of local assets, better scheduling of demand flexibility, and more efficient use of renewable energy generation on-site.

As part of this Proof of Concept (PoC), the Copernicus-powered forecasting solution was deployed across three selected sites in Belgium, allowing Luminus to evaluate its performance in different real-world conditions. By applying the service simultaneously at multiple locations, the PoC demonstrated the forecasting methods and provided insights into how forecasts can be scaled and adapted across diverse PV installations. This multi-site approach ensured that the outcomes reflect a representative and practical assessment of the solution’s added value.

Key outcomes of the pilot included:

• Improved irradiance level forecasts, closer to the local reality, especially in bad weather conditions
• Reuniwatt provides a “true localized approach” with frequent data, as opposed to traditional weather forecasting, resulting in better time precision for rapid changing weather conditions

This PoC has shown how the Copernicus-powered forecasting model of Reuniwatt can improve the accuracy of our power generation forecasts. Realistic forecasts enable us to proactively manage our assets and deliver a better SmartKit service.

Edouard De Bruyne

Luminus

About the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service

The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) provides continuous, high-quality data on the composition of the atmosphere, supporting applications in air quality, climate, and renewable energy. For solar forecasting, CAMS delivers essential variables such as aerosol optical depth, water vapor column data, and radiation parameters, all of which directly affect how much sunlight reaches the Earth’s surface. Reuniwatt integrates these datasets with geostationary satellite imagery in their forecasting models, allowing them to refine predictions of solar irradiance and improve the accuracy of short-term PV power generation forecasts. By combining CAMS data with their proprietary methods, Reuniwatt enhances the reliability of solar forecasts in rapidly changing weather conditions.

Looking ahead

Luminus and Reuniwatt plan to continue working together to further investigate the accuracy and potential of the service over a longer time period, and are evaluating the commercial trade-offs required prior to a potential roll-out.

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